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Abstract National nutrient inventories provide surplus phosphorus (P) estimates derived from county‐scale mass balance calculations using P inputs from manure and fertilizer sales and P outputs from crop yield data. Although bioavailable P and surplus P are often correlated at the field scale, few studies have investigated the relationship between measured soil P concentrations of large‐scale soil testing programs and inventory‐based surplus P estimates. In this study, we assessed the relationship between national surplus P data from the NuGIS dataset and laboratory‐measured soil test phosphorus (STP) at the county scale for Arkansas, North Carolina, and Oklahoma. For optimal periods of surplus P aggregation, surplus P was positively correlated with STP based on both Pearson (Arkansas:r = 0.65, North Carolina:r = 0.45, Oklahoma:r = 0.52) and Spearman correlation coefficients (Arkansas:ρ = 0.57, North Carolina:ρ = 0.28, and Oklahoma:ρ = 0.66). Based on Pearson correlations, the optimal surplus P aggregation periods were 10, 30, and 4 years for AR, NC, and OK, respectively. On average, STP was more strongly correlated with surplus P than with individual P inventory components (fertilizer, manure, and crop removal), except in North Carolina. In Arkansas and North Carolina, manure P was positively correlated with STP, and fertilizer P was negatively correlated with STP. Altogether, results suggest that surplus P moderately correlates with STP concentrations, but aggregation period and location‐specific factors influence the strength of the relationship.